"The Top Might Be In"
Key Levels & Consolidation Progress
Dear Bitcoiners,
The Trump Trade War Pause has left the markets in a holding pattern. Many are waiting to see what comes next. From anecdotal reports, companies are putting hiring and expansion plans on hold, while markets, especially Bitcoin, are trading sideways.
Will efficient tariff deals be reached and global trade be facilitated, or will Trump double down on high tariffs?
Just yesterday, Trump said he’s very confident about a trade deal with the EU and expects a good deal with China. He added there’s no rush, but announcements may come soon. In last week’s newsletter, we discussed three potential paths forward and their implications for Bitcoin. While Trump's team has been vocal about choosing Main Street over Wall Street, if efficient deals are reached, it may turn out to be mainly Wall Street after all.
Remember, it’s not about what they say, but what they do. We’ll find out soon whether choosing Main Street over Wall Street is a real pivot or perhaps just a marketing narrative. If you missed last week’s newsletter on the potential regime change and the three paths forward, you can read it here:
"The top might be in"
Ironically, while we find ourselves in a trade war pause and markets wait for clarity on tariffs, the Bitcoin Strategy Cheat Sheet shows we are literally in the intermission phase.
Considering the current readings in STH Supply and STH Momentum, one might get the feeling (myself included) that 'the top might be in', but that’s exactly the kind of sentiment typical for this phase of the cycle.
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We still have 8 months to build momentum toward a cycle peak. Will the 4-year cycle continue, or is this time really different? We’re approaching a critical point as Bitcoin nears several key levels.