I will have to read it a few more times to completely comprehend, but thank you for this additional alternative to determining price discovery. Your previous post about moving the goalpost to the left (back in time), that BTC behavior post halving started Jan 11 w/ETFs rather than in April, was brilliant.
Root: Perhaps you have seen this. This chart correlates BTC cycle tops with liquidity X Central Bank Balance. The red dots are 9-11 bars (6W) apart, which suggests cycle peak at the end of 2024 at the earliest, perhaps first quarter 2025. Can something like this be considered in your Global Liquidity index ?, is this replicated by your own data ?.
Thank you Root! I know a lot of thought and effort went into identifying an on-chain way of determining the effect of flows. The idea that we now have a new tool to evaluate price action based on flows is fantastic.
In my post originally asking about the multiplier, I asked about projections taking into account flows. Clearly the longer the horizon the less clarity you would have. That said, now that there is a way to do this (and your $200k potential mentioned in the post), how do you see us getting to that $200k point? What sort of assumptions are there in play that lead to your conclusion? I'm curious because if we can baseline those assumptions, then we can watch them play out and adjust targets in real time.
Root: Am not understanding what purpose the red lines (outflow multiplier) serve ?. As the green inflow multiplier moves up an down with the bear/bull market. Would the graphs be clearer with just the green inflow multiplier ?.
I will have to read it a few more times to completely comprehend, but thank you for this additional alternative to determining price discovery. Your previous post about moving the goalpost to the left (back in time), that BTC behavior post halving started Jan 11 w/ETFs rather than in April, was brilliant.
Brilliant post.
Root: Perhaps you have seen this. This chart correlates BTC cycle tops with liquidity X Central Bank Balance. The red dots are 9-11 bars (6W) apart, which suggests cycle peak at the end of 2024 at the earliest, perhaps first quarter 2025. Can something like this be considered in your Global Liquidity index ?, is this replicated by your own data ?.
https://twitter.com/TechDev_52/status/1763749073499119654/photo/1
Can you create an average of red/green to make it easier to read?
Thank you Root! I know a lot of thought and effort went into identifying an on-chain way of determining the effect of flows. The idea that we now have a new tool to evaluate price action based on flows is fantastic.
In my post originally asking about the multiplier, I asked about projections taking into account flows. Clearly the longer the horizon the less clarity you would have. That said, now that there is a way to do this (and your $200k potential mentioned in the post), how do you see us getting to that $200k point? What sort of assumptions are there in play that lead to your conclusion? I'm curious because if we can baseline those assumptions, then we can watch them play out and adjust targets in real time.
Root: Am not understanding what purpose the red lines (outflow multiplier) serve ?. As the green inflow multiplier moves up an down with the bear/bull market. Would the graphs be clearer with just the green inflow multiplier ?.