Bull Market Continuation and Cycle Peak Prediction
Preparing for Scenarios with New HODLer Supply Insights
Dear Bitcoiners,
What a week! Tragically, things have literally heated up as we’re approaching the shift in U.S. administration on January 20. On the macro front, long-duration Treasury yields have risen significantly, reflecting fears of continued inflation. For Bitcoin, volatility increased with the news that the Department of Justice (DOJ) has been cleared to sell approximately 69,000 BTC, though it remains unclear if they will act before Trump takes office with his plans for a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve. Meanwhile, the Bitcoin price is hovering at the exact same level as the start of this year. Considering the substantial panic, Bitcoin has once again remained resilient. With the STH cost basis at ~$88k and very limited time left for the supply gap to potentially fill, we’re counting down to the pro-Bitcoin administration.
In the previous newsletter, we discussed how 2025 is the 4-year cycle’s most promising year. Considering the timing of the cycle, as illustrated in the spiral chart, and key indicators such as the on-chain Value Map and MVRV, the likelihood of a continued bull market is very high:
However, while the data suggests more upside ahead, I want to use this newsletter to prepare for a scenario that also holds merit. There are several critical data points I’d like to share that offer a slightly different perspective. I can’t predict how the future will unfold, but the following indicators should definitely be on your radar in the months ahead.
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HODLer Supply
For the scenario I’m about to lay out, I’m using a new indicator called HODLer Supply. This indicator aims to measure HODLer behavior and is essentially a fine-tuned version of LTH (Long-Term Holder) supply that excludes portions of the supply that are not participating in the market (e.g., lost coins).