2026: Low Expectations

On-Chain Insights

Dear Bitcoiners,

I wish you a happy New Year, full of health, wealth, and conviction. 🧡✊

We’re only three days into 2026 and there are macro events unfolding that will have a big impact on oil, the economy and therefore Bitcoin. In this newsletter, we’ll discuss how to approach 2026, with a new chart covering key insights. We’ll also revisit practical on-chain charts for resistance and support levels.

Over the past newsletters, we reflected on 2025 and why it has been an underwhelming and uncertain year for Bitcoin, best described as a distribution phase around the $100k psychological level. Deep and liquid markets allowed long-term holders to take profits, something we’ve also seen in previous cycles, like the long distribution around $10k in 2019–2020. We concluded that Bitcoin would close below $100k, as on-chain data confirmed the ongoing distribution. This cycle never reached extreme overvaluation levels, which suggests downside risk is more limited than in past cycles. We also covered how Bitcoin’s maturation and high correlation with risk assets have tied it more closely to the broader macro and business cycle. Despite the lack of price performance, institutional adoption, ETFs, regulatory progress, and new gateways through treasury companies have continued.

Unlike 2025, expectations for 2026 are low.