Root, thanks for this comprehensive look at the cycles. I still think one aspect of cycle psychology is missing though. That is, the length of the bull and how it ends. Obviously, bulls end when people stop buying. But what is it that make people stop buying? There are external factors such as the macro picture, liquidity, or world effecting news. But there are also inherent factors where price itself is the signal to a sufficient number of buyers that the price has run its course. You have used metrics in other charts of value and have delineated an overvalued line. Bulls generally go well over that line. It would be an interesting starting point to use the moment when the price reaches your overvalued line for cycle synchronization. This isn’t really a full cycle view but something more like comparisons of cycle ends. That might be very useful to your readers at this point in the cycle. Thanks again for an excellent write up.
I've always suspected the lines of the spiral chart will eventually cross, as at some point, we'll shift away from the 4-year cycle. Each halving has a diminishing effect, and consequently, other catalysts will take over. The ETF approval was, coincidentally, very close to the Halving, a double catalyst. For now, we aren't that much out of sync. It needs at least another bear market, but more likely another cycle, for the lines to cross. Just to clarify, even with a shifted cycle and potential temporary cross, I do believe the lines will keep expanding.
With talk of a US bitcoin strategic reserve, if we see game theory play out with nation states, wouldn’t this be one way to break the spiral chart to the upside? meaning the infamous super cycle?
Exciting times ahead with the Bitcoin Halving just around the corner! Looking forward to seeing how the reduced supply issuance will impact the market.
Your analysis really sounds point on. I have been telling everyone that this cycle is totally different. Retail has brought us this far, but institutions have taken over. We must embrace the change and keep accumulating
Root, thanks for this comprehensive look at the cycles. I still think one aspect of cycle psychology is missing though. That is, the length of the bull and how it ends. Obviously, bulls end when people stop buying. But what is it that make people stop buying? There are external factors such as the macro picture, liquidity, or world effecting news. But there are also inherent factors where price itself is the signal to a sufficient number of buyers that the price has run its course. You have used metrics in other charts of value and have delineated an overvalued line. Bulls generally go well over that line. It would be an interesting starting point to use the moment when the price reaches your overvalued line for cycle synchronization. This isn’t really a full cycle view but something more like comparisons of cycle ends. That might be very useful to your readers at this point in the cycle. Thanks again for an excellent write up.
So does this mean the spiral chart could break for this cycle?
I've always suspected the lines of the spiral chart will eventually cross, as at some point, we'll shift away from the 4-year cycle. Each halving has a diminishing effect, and consequently, other catalysts will take over. The ETF approval was, coincidentally, very close to the Halving, a double catalyst. For now, we aren't that much out of sync. It needs at least another bear market, but more likely another cycle, for the lines to cross. Just to clarify, even with a shifted cycle and potential temporary cross, I do believe the lines will keep expanding.
Love the clarity and detail. Thanks!
Can you send me an email, please, I’ve forgotten my subscription password and can’t only login to the etf tracker site. Thanks, dc
With talk of a US bitcoin strategic reserve, if we see game theory play out with nation states, wouldn’t this be one way to break the spiral chart to the upside? meaning the infamous super cycle?
Nice write up ✍️ thanks
Really appreciate these explainers.
Exciting times ahead with the Bitcoin Halving just around the corner! Looking forward to seeing how the reduced supply issuance will impact the market.
Your analysis really sounds point on. I have been telling everyone that this cycle is totally different. Retail has brought us this far, but institutions have taken over. We must embrace the change and keep accumulating