Market Update & New Roxom Sponsorship

Bitcoin at Key Resistance: Above STH Cost Basis, Below the 200-Day MA

Dear Bitcoiners,

Bitcoin broke above the STH cost basis, a level we’ve been tracking closely over the past weeks. This is a constructive development. However, Bitcoin is still below the 200-day moving average, which means we are not fully through the resistance zone yet.

Many are already celebrating the breakout, but the real test is whether this zone can turn into support. The prudent approach remains the same: we want to see Bitcoin break above resistance, retest it, and hold it as support before becoming fully bullish.

👉 Key insight: Bitcoin broke above the STH cost basis, but remains below the 200-day moving average. We are still inside the broader resistance zone. The next important step is for this zone to turn into support.

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If Bitcoin manages to stay above the STH cost basis and eventually reclaim the 200-day moving average, the bull case becomes much stronger. If not, this move could still turn into another rejection within the broader bear market structure. For now, the market is showing strength!

Two possible catalysts could help keep that strength going: pro-bitcoin Kevin Warsh may soon replace Jerome Powell as Fed Chair when Powell’s term ends next week, and the CLARITY Act is moving forward in the Senate next week, which could bring clearer rules for the industry.

New Sponsorship: Roxom

I’m excited to announce I’m officially sponsored by Roxom.

Over the past year, I’ve been on Roxom TV several times. I met the Roxom team, got to know what they are building, and it became clear that our goals are very much aligned. Roxom is a Bitcoin-only company building Bitcoin capital markets.

In my last newsletter, I explained how institutional flows are a natural part of Bitcoin’s adoption curve. ETFs, treasury companies, digital credit products, and Bitcoin-denominated markets are all part of this transition. Roxom’s mission fits perfectly with how I believe we’ll transition into a Bitcoin-denominated world.

They are creating a Bitcoin-denominated capital market, where financial products are priced, denominated, and settled in Bitcoin! This includes products like Bitcoin-denominated futures, stocks in Bitcoin, and digital credit instruments that can pay income in BTC.

From today moving forward, my charts will include the Roxom logo.

If you haven’t created an account with Roxom yet, and want to see what markets denominated in Bitcoin look like, consider doing so today.

Click here or use code: ROOT.

Of course, only use products that are available in your jurisdiction and always understand the risks involved.

Why This Fits Bitcoin Strategy

This sponsorship is not random. We’ve been tracking Bitcoin’s market structure, on-chain and cycle behavior, and the broader transition toward institutional flows. Roxom is building into that same future.

We’ve talked a lot about how this cycle is different in that retail has been less dominant. Institutional flows have become more important. Treasury companies are creating new products. ETFs opened the door. Digital credit is emerging. Bitcoin capital markets are forming.

This is the natural next step of Bitcoin adoption. Early adopters bought Bitcoin directly. The early majority will come through financial products, platforms, advisors, ETFs, treasury companies, and Bitcoin-denominated markets.

I highly value the Bitcoin ethos, self-custody, and running a node. With Bitcoin on its way to becoming the global reserve asset, we also need Bitcoin-denominated markets and lending that allow people and institutions to operate on a Bitcoin standard.

Wrap-Up

I’m excited to start this new partnership with Roxom. They are building products for the next phase of Bitcoin adoption, and I’m grateful to have them as a sponsor! 🙏 ✊

I also want to sincerely thank my previous sponsor, BTC Direct, for years of trust and support. We are parting on excellent terms, and I wish them all the best moving forward. 🧡

As always, let me know what you think in the comments. 👊

Until next week, 🫡

-Root