PODCAST: The Bitcoin Historian

4-Year Cycle, Bottom Formation & Treasury Companies

Dear Bitcoiners,

I’ve got a brand-new podcast episode for you! Last week, I recorded a great conversation with Pete Rizzo, The Bitcoin Historian, and the episode just went live. It fits perfectly with the current market and the topics we’ve been discussing over the past weeks.

We covered where Bitcoin is in the cycle, why the 4-year cycle remains intact, the Low Consolidation phase, treasury companies, and the path toward a Bitcoin standard. The parts on the Bitcoin Spiral and bottom formation are my personal favorites. Make sure you don’t miss those.

As a paid subscriber, you get access to all live charts and indicators, and together we’ll continue dissecting this bottom formation over the coming weeks. For links to the live charts, see the list below!

Watch the full episode here:

Key Topics + Links to Live Charts

Where We Are in the Cycle

• Bitcoin around $60k and why a lower low is still possible

• The Low Consolidation phase

• Realized Price around $53.5k

• CVDD around $45.2k

The 4-Year Cycle

• The Bitcoin Spiral

• Why the 4-year cycle remains intact

• The diminishing impact of the halving

• The role of the business cycle

• Why Bitcoin psychology is still following the classic cycle structure

Bear Market Structure

• Key resistance levels

• The 200-day moving average

• The 21-weekly moving average

• STH cost basis around $71.6k

• Why Bitcoin rejected off these levels

• What I want to see before turning more bullish

Bottom Formation

• Comparing the current bottom formation to 2022

• The February drop versus the June 2022 drop

• Why the market moved into the Low Consolidation phase

• Why 2022 needed an FTX-style event to make a lower low

• Why another lower low is possible, but not necessary

• The potential dampening effect from treasury company demand

Treasury Companies

• Why treasury companies are getting the blame

• Treasury companies as one of the main sources of demand

• mNAV blow-offs and the first real stress test

• Retail hype phase around treasury companies

• Are treasury companies here to stay?

Institutional Adoption

• Institutional ETF adoption through 13F filings

• Why institutional adoption is still in an uptrend

The Path Toward a Bitcoin Standard

• ETFs and treasury companies as a bridge

• Constrained fiat capital and why it can’t move directly into self-custody

• Co-opted by fiat, or the trojan horse?

The Road Back to a Bull Market

• Reclaiming key resistance levels

• Resistance near the $100k level and $2 trillion market cap

• What the next exponential trend could look like

• Gradually or suddenly?

• Gold parity

• The best entry zone

As always, your comments and thoughts are appreciated! 🧡👊

Until next week, 🫡

-Root