Dear Bitcoiners,
Earlier this week, I joined Alessandro Ottaviani, Francesco Madonna, and Johan Bergman for a live episode of the Bitcoin – Store of Value Podcast. We covered a wide range of questions on cycles, on-chain data, institutional adoption, and Bitcoin’s correlation with risk assets.
Quick summary of key discussion points:
Market behavior: Bitcoin trading in the structured channel, shaped by passive flows, Hodler sell pressure, and macro conditions.
Cycle positioning: We’re approaching the final phase of the 4-year cycle. This cycle has been marked by resets and a slow grind higher, making an extension into 2026 more likely.
Institutional adoption: Q2 saw another 100k BTC added by institutions. These flows are more gradual than retail hype.
On-chain signals: Short-Term Holder Supply keeps rising, a promising sign for Q4. Using the Short-Term Holder Profit metric for spotting local bottoms.
Price action: The expected 25bps rate cut, a potential catalyst for risk assets. The rate cut is now confirmed!
If you’d like to watch the full podcast, here are the links to 👉 X (Twitter) and 👉 YouTube.
Structured Channel & STH Supply
The following chart, discussed in the podcast, is now live for paid subscribers!
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Next, we’ll look at another on-chain signal of major importance that’s about to trigger.