Macro-Driven Correction

Outlook & Downside Risk

Dear Bitcoiners,

While there’s absolutely no negative development regarding Bitcoin, we’re currently experiencing the largest pullback of the bull market so far, a 30% correction (26% on the daily close). In today’s newsletter, we break down the latest developments, discussing the macro influence, downside risk, and the key charts and indicators to track.

Macro Uncertainty Driving the Correction

This correction has nothing to do with Bitcoin itself but is driven by broader global de-risking in financial markets. There is significant macro uncertainty surrounding U.S. relations, Trump’s proposed tariffs, and the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict.

While gold is in an uptrend and functioning as a hedge, Bitcoin remains highly correlated with risk assets rather than acting as digital gold. This indicates it is still viewed as a volatile asset rather than a hedge against uncertainty.

Next, we’ll dive deep into the insights from ETF flows, assess downside risk, and discuss how to navigate conflicting market signals.

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