Identical Corrections
Consolidation continues—when’s the breakout?
Dear Bitcoiners,
This correction is nearly identical to the one we saw after the ETF approval. That consolidation phase lasted seven months—will this one be the same?
Let’s take a look at the on-chain tools available and see what insights they give us.
Bitcoin continues to move sideways, and our patience is being tested. How long will this correction last?
Identical Corrections
In last week’s newsletter, we discussed whether the bottom might be in, based on ETF flows. You can find that issue here. This week, I have some very insightful data to share.
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This correction closely mirrors the post-ETF approval correction—both in terms of catalyst and the levels of over- and undervaluation.
If you’ve been following Bitcoin Strategy, we’ve already touched on these similarities in a previous newsletter. But this week, we’ll go a little deeper.
Let’s recap:
First, the ETF approval served as a strong catalyst, followed by the disappointing halving.
Then, the election result acted as a catalyst, followed by the disappointing inauguration.
👉 Key Insight: In both rallies, we hit ~1.4 standard deviations above the Short-Term Holder cost basis, followed by a correction to ~0.6 standard deviations below it.