Follow-up interview WBD
Bull Market Comparison
Dear Bitcoiners,
I’ve had the pleasure of having a follow-up interview on the What Bitcoin Did show with my sponsor @BTCDirect. It’s a highly relevant 45-minute talk that was recorded on March 12, during the ATHs. Two weeks after the recording date is a long time in Bitcoin, and boy, have we experienced how the ETF flows, unlike a Halving event, fluctuate.
The two months of data on ETFs, while promising, were always limited, a reason why I’ve been tracking the flows every step of the way!
The past week, we experienced outflows, and then we got neutral flows; meaning the 4k BTC per day shock disappeared overnight and resulted in the correction we’ve been in. As mentioned in last week’s newsletter, much of the price action is spot-driven, similar to the 2016/2017 bull market, and sideways price action is entirely in line with that particular bull market.
The latest version of the Bitcoin cycles aligned by ATH
Key remarks
With the ETF flow headwind, the current cycle fell between the 2021 and 2017 cycles.
The current correction has seen a 15% drop on the daily close, which is a mild correction so far; however, I was prepared for 30%.
The ETF Outflows are primarily due to Grayscale; the other ETFs are seeing inflows, hinting towards a continuation once Grayscale stops.
While the market might be at a crossroads, considering the somewhat mixed ETF flows and nothing is ever guaranteed, the sustained interest in the ETFs, especially highlighted by Larry Fink's recent announcement that BlackRock's spot Bitcoin ETF is the "fastest growing ETF in the history of ETFs," signals strong institutional support for Bitcoin. As we approach the Halving, historical trends hint at a continuation of the bull market.
Now, without further delay, here’s the interview! 👇
I hope you enjoyed this interview! Let me know what you think in the comments.
Gain immediate access to all premium charts with a lifetime 25% discount.
Reminder: watch last week’s chart for resistance and support levels. 👊
Until next week! 🧡
-Root
Root: This was a fantastic presentation, my big peeve was that you were not showing the charts when you were discussing. What I saw most of the time was your sponsor and a big carrot. :-). Perhaps a different way of seating might be considered the next time.
@Root, would it be possible to add a calculator (for fun) that predicts year end price taking the expected monthly ETF flows (which we input from your charts) and the BTC multiplier (which we can input by looking at your charts).