Consolidation Insights
Key Levels, Downside Risk, 4-Year Cycle
Dear Bitcoiners,
What a week for Bitcoin! The Bitcoin community mocked Germany for selling off its 50,000 BTC of seized Bitcoin. Considering the amount sold, the price held up well due to strong ETF demand acting as a counterforce. Nonetheless, Bitcoin fell below key levels, including the 200-day SMA, which is not an ideal setup given that the Mt. Gox distribution to creditors is still commencing. Ironically, while the price dropped due to Germany's actions and will likely continue to consolidate, Bitcoin is simultaneously reaching a new level of political importance, with Trump speaking at Bitcoin Nashville! This is not about Trump; this is about Bitcoin’s game theory and the stage we find ourselves in. This is what it looks like when institutions and countries start adopting Bitcoin!
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If you missed my latest What Bitcoin Did show, I highly recommend you watch it. We discuss a whole range of topics, from the psychology of the market cycle to supply dynamics and Bitcoin’s multiplier. Below is an important snippet I want to highlight, using the On-chain Value Map.
As explained in the video, this cycle has more in common with the 2nd Halving, where we dipped below fair value for only a short time. This cycle, however, saw slightly more of an over-extension than the 2nd Halving, and therefore might also experience a slightly stronger correction.
Next, a whole pack of must-see charts where we discuss the stronger base, 4-year cycle, key levels, and downside risk. 👇